Jeffrey A. Friedman
Jeffrey A. Friedman
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Testing the surge: Why did violence decline in Iraq in 2007?
S Biddle, JA Friedman, JN Shapiro
International Security 37 (1), 7-40, 2012
2006 Lebanon Campaign and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy
S Biddle, JA Friedman
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, 2009
Assessing uncertainty in intelligence
JA Friedman, R Zeckhauser
Intelligence and National Security 27 (6), 824-847, 2012
Manpower and counterinsurgency: Empirical foundations for theory and doctrine
JA Friedman
Security Studies 20 (4), 556-591, 2011
Handling and mishandling estimative probability: likelihood, confidence, and the search for Bin Laden
JA Friedman, R Zeckhauser
Intelligence and National Security 30 (1), 77-99, 2015
The value of precision in probability assessment: Evidence from a large-scale geopolitical forecasting tournament
JA Friedman, JD Baker, BA Mellers, PE Tetlock, R Zeckhauser
International Studies Quarterly 62 (2), 410-422, 2018
Using power laws to estimate conflict size
JA Friedman
Journal of Conflict Resolution 59 (7), 1216-1241, 2015
Civil war intervention and the problem of Iraq
S Biddle, JA Friedman, S Long
International Studies Quarterly 56 (1), 85-98, 2012
Behavioral consequences of probabilistic precision: Experimental evidence from national security professionals
JA Friedman, JS Lerner, R Zeckhauser
International organization 71 (4), 803-826, 2017
Correspondence: Assessing the synergy thesis in Iraq
J Hagan, J Kaiser, A Hanson, JR Lindsay, AG Long, S Biddle, ...
International Security 37 (4), 173-198, 2013
Why assessing estimative accuracy is feasible and desirable
JA Friedman, R Zeckhauser
Intelligence and National Security 31 (2), 178-200, 2016
War and chance: Assessing uncertainty in international politics
JA Friedman
Oxford University Press, 2019
Priorities for preventive action: Explaining americans’ divergent reactions to 100 public risks
JA Friedman
American Journal of Political Science 63 (1), 181-196, 2019
How cumulative dynamics affect military decision making
JA Friedman
Working Paper. Hanover, NH: Dartmouth University, 2014
Analytic Confidence and Political Decision‐Making: Theoretical Principles and Experimental Evidence From National Security Professionals
JA Friedman, R Zeckhauser
Political Psychology 39 (5), 1069-1087, 2018
Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments
B Mellers, PE Tetlock, J Baker, J Friedman, R Zeckhauser
The Future of Risk Management, 1-28, 2019
Vague Probability Assessments in National Security Decision Making: Exploring the Justifications for a Remarkably Uncontroversial Practice
JA Friedman
Perspectives on Politics 1 (1), 2003
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